Iran-Israel War: Why Are Indian Farmers and Businesses Worried?

The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has sent shockwaves across the globe, but its ripple effects are being felt particularly strongly in India. While the war rages thousands of kilometers away, Indian farmers and business owners are growing increasingly anxious. Why is a conflict in the Middle East causing sleepless nights in the fields and factories of India? The answer lies in the deep economic and strategic ties that connect India to the region—and the global commodities that flow through it.

The Oil Connection

At the heart of the anxiety is oil. India is the world’s third-largest importer of crude oil, and a significant portion of this comes from the Middle East, especially Iran. Any disruption in the region, such as the current Iran-Israel conflict, can send oil prices soaring. For Indian farmers, who rely on diesel to power their tractors and irrigation pumps, a rise in fuel costs means higher expenses and lower profits. For transporters and logistics companies, it means more expensive freight, which ultimately leads to increased prices for consumers.

Already, global crude oil prices have shown volatility since the conflict escalated. “If the war continues, it will have a direct impact on our input costs,” says Ramesh Kumar, a wheat farmer from Haryana. “We are already struggling with high fertilizer prices. If diesel becomes more expensive, farming will become unviable for many of us.”

Fertilizer Fears

But it’s not just oil. India imports a large quantity of fertilizers, much of which comes from the Middle East. The ongoing conflict threatens to disrupt these supply chains, leading to shortages and price spikes. Fertilizer is a critical input for Indian agriculture, and any disruption can have a cascading effect on food production and inflation.

Trade and Exports at Risk

Indian businesses, especially those engaged in exports, are also on edge. The Middle East is a key market for Indian products such as rice, tea, spices, and textiles. The Persian Gulf serves as a vital shipping route, and any instability threatens the free flow of goods. Indian exporters fear delays, higher insurance costs, and even cancellations of orders if the conflict widens.

“The uncertainty is making it difficult to plan shipments,” says Priya Shah, a Mumbai-based textile exporter. “If ports in the region are affected, it could mean huge losses for us.”

Diplomatic Tightrope

India’s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has so far walked a diplomatic tightrope. India has strong ties with both Israel and Iran. While Israel is a key defense partner, Iran has been an important source of energy. Any escalation puts India in a delicate position, as it seeks to balance its strategic interests with economic realities.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei of Iran has called for unity among Islamic nations and condemned Israeli actions, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to defend his country at any cost. The hardline stances of both leaders have made the prospect of a quick resolution unlikely.

The Human Angle

Beyond economics, there are also thousands of Indian expatriates working in the Middle East, especially in Iran, Israel, and the Gulf countries. Their safety and job security are now under threat, adding another layer of concern for families back home.

Looking Ahead

As the world watches the Iran-Israel conflict unfold, Indian farmers and business owners hope for a swift and peaceful resolution. Until then, uncertainty prevails. The war may be far from Indian shores, but its impact is being felt in every drop of diesel, every bag of fertilizer, and every shipment that leaves an Indian port.